According to NHK World Japan, a team of researchers in Japan has raised concerns over a potential magnitude 9 megaquake forming off the coast of Hokkaido, at the Chishima Trench.
Screengrab: Google Maps
According to findings from Tohoku and Hokkaido universities, along with the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, unreleased stress energy in the Chishima Trench has reached a level that could trigger a megaquake (a massive earthquake).
Signs of a Major Seismic Event
Video screengrab: NHK World Japan
The five-year study, which began in 2019, involved installing GPS observation stations on the seabed near the point where an ocean plate sinks beneath a continental plate. The data revealed that both plates have been moving at the same rate of 8 centimeters per year, suggesting that parts of them are firmly locked together, thus causing strain to build up over time.
If the plates have remained locked since the last recorded mega-quake in the 17th century, researchers believe the accumulated strain could result in an earthquake of magnitude 9 or higher.
Historical Context and Future Risks of a Megaquake in Japan
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The Japanese government’s earthquake panel has previously estimated that there is a 7 to 40 percent chance of a megaquake with a magnitude of at least 8.8 striking the region within the next 30 years.
Assistant Professor Tomita Fumiaki from the International Research Institute of Disaster Science at Tohoku University has emphasized the importance of preparedness. He urged residents to remain vigilant and ready for the possibility of another disastrous seismic event.
Ongoing Research and Preparedness
The research team plans to conduct further studies in other locations off Hokkaido to refine predictions and improve disaster readiness.
As Japan remains one of the world’s most earthquake-prone regions, ongoing monitoring and public awareness are essential in mitigating the impact of potential future quakes.
First reported on NHK World Japan
